Gartner bets on 30% of top PC manufacturers to die off

Gartner 2004 PC forecast after Q3 2004 shipments were lower than projected. Gartner sees shipments of desktop and notebook PCs reaching 182.7 million units, up 11.4% from 2003. Gartner’s outlook assumes the release of a new version of the Windows operating system and the PC’s continued advance into traditional consumer electronics applications, conditions that have spurred new purchase booms in the past. But pressures on manufacturers from slowing unit gains and falling prices could force as many as three of the companies now among the top 10 suppliers world-wide to abandon the PC business, they said. Gartner rates the departures of three of the current top 10 companies at a 70% probability. Gartner also estimates that unit shipments will rise just 5.7% annually from 2006 through 2008. Most of the shipment gains in the future will come from developing markets in Asia.