Recovering demand and
controlled bit supply will boost the worldwide DRAM market for the next two
years, according to IDC’s latest DRAM market forecast. However, the report
also reveals that oversupply due to expanding production by 12-inch fabs will
pull the market down after 2005, leading to a correction in the middle of the
forecast period. Despite this correction, IDC predicts that the DRAM market
will grow from $16.5 billion in revenue in 2003 to $24.7 billion in 2007.
The bit demand from all devices consuming DRAM will increase at more than
40% CAGR, mainly driven by a PC replacement cycle and the introduction of
next-generation microprocessors. The report also emphasizes that the mobile
devices sector, such as mobile phones and smart handheld devices (i.e. PDAs),
will experience bit growth that tops other applications.
In terms of memory types, DDR will live on through multiple generations.
DDR II will succeed DDR I as the next mainstream memory interface, and its
share of the market will peak at over 70% in 2007. DDR III will then succeed
DDR II. XDR, a successor to RDRAM and a potential competitor to DDR in PC main
memory, will begin to emerge in consumer and networking applications first in
In terms of memory densities, as PCs begin to consume more than one
gigabyte of main memory on average in 2007, the DRAM market will begin to
transition from the 512Mbit density to the 1Gbit density near the end of 2006.