24 mln VOIP subscribers in 2008, Vonage, Time Warner, Cablevision market leaders

VOIP service revenue in North America will grow 18x between 2004 and 2009, from $1.24 bln to $23.4 bln, according to Infonetics Research. More than $62 bln will be spent on VoIP services over the 5-year forecast period. VoIP subscriber growth is skyrocketing right along with revenue growth: Infonetics is forecasting triple-digit growth from 2005 to 2006, with 6 mln new subscribers a year every year from 2006 to 2008, when there will be over 24 mln.

Vonage leads the residential and SOHO VoIP subscriber market, but their share is the lowest it’s been in 9 months due to cable companies making gains. Cablevision and Time Warner Cable each have double-digit share and combined have over 40% of all North American residential VoIP subscribers. Time Warner Cable is gaining subscriber share and they only sell within their footprint, not nationwide like AT&T and Vonage.

The top 3 North American residential/SOHO VoIP subscriber market share leaders in Q2 2005: Vonage (32%, down from 36% in Q1 2005), Time Warner Cable (25%, up from 21%), and Cablevision (19%, down from 21%); no other service provider has subscriber share greater than 3%. MSOs make up almost half the North American VoIP subscribers base in 2004 and will peak at 55% of all subscribers in 2005. The US makes up 93% of the North American VoIP services market in 2004, Canada makes up 7%; Canada will make up a greater portion of North American VoIP services revenue by 2009, especially in the residential market.